Is there a final end is sight to a declining housing market? Will home sales improve this year, next year or in 2010? Bakerate.com conducted a study, bring together a panel of experts in the industry, and this is what they found.
One thing to understand about forecasting the housing market is that although it is based on good solid information, such as foreclosure rates, job growth, new construction figures and home sales and prices, that it is still forecasting. No one really knows the future, including the weather, although we can make some educated guesses.
The next thing to know is that location still matters. In some “hot” areas where the rate of appreciation rose sharper than the rate of increase in income during the boom, we will see large decreases in sales as the market adjusts itself.
So when will home sales bottom out? The experts all agree that the market will continue to decline in 2008. Where opinion differs, however, is to when things will hit bottom and stabilize, and perhaps even begin a slow climb back up to appreciation. One chief economist doesn’t believe that we will hit the bottom until 2010. The National Association of Realtors (NAR), on the other hand, forecasts that the worse will happen in the middle of this year, 2008, with a slight improvement at the very end of the year. They are the optimists. At the lowest point, the NAR expects the median house to cost $216,300, with a rise to $223,200 in 2009. New home prices fare a little better, although it looks like there will be less inventory, and therefore less competition.
An expert from a real estate consulting firm agrees with the economist that real estate decline will continue until 2010.
What do you think?
To read the entire report, 30-City Real Estate Outlook, click here.
Mary Ann Romans writes about everything related to saving money in the Frugal Blog, technology in the Computing Blog, and creating a home in the Home Blog. You can read more of her articles by clicking here.
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