In recent weeks, the rhetoric of the presidential campaign has gotten more heated. McCain and Palin continue to recycle old news stories about Bill Ayers and Obama, in turn, has brought up McCain’s involvement in the Keating Five back in the late 1980s. Do these non-issues affect how people vote on Election Day? Well, that depends.
Unfortunately, in past elections, this strategy has worked. Bush used negative campaigning effectively in both 2000 and 2004. Perhaps the most notorious example was in the attacks on John Kerry, a decorated war veteran. Coming from a candidate who had avoided Vietnam at all costs and even went AWOL from the National Guard, logic would suggest the attacks shouldn’t have worked.
However, they did work. The strategy worked so well that a new term was added to the language of our political discourse: Swiftboating. Obama recently used that word in a speech when he said he won’t be swiftboated by John McCain.
It seems that the misleading statements and mud slinging aren’t having the same effect this year. In fact, there is some evidence to suggest they aren’t working at all. As John McCain’s numbers began to falter, he picked up the negative campaigning technique that had worked so well when used against him in 2000. However, as he increased the attacks and negative ads, his poll numbers have continued to slide.
There is a huge difference between 2008 and 2000. That difference is the economy, which is hurting people in so many ways. From rising food and fuel costs, to increased layoffs, to the crumbling financial markets and falling real estate values, people are worried. In 2000, the economy was strong and it was easier to change the subject to less important issues.
Voters are less interested this time around in who sat on a board with what candidate. They want to hear what these two men will do to turn things around. In the end, the winner will likely be the person who most voters think is best equipped to deal with these issues. So far, it seems Obama is doing a better job in getting his message out to people. According to a CNN poll, Obama is leading McCain by 18 percentage points when asked who would best handle this crisis.
Another factor these men need to consider is the effect of negative campaigning on different groups. Both men have their base. Republicans are largely voting for McCain and Democrats are largely voting for Obama. The decision will be made by independent voters. This group is more likely to be turned off by the negative tone than either democrats or republicans.