I see it often expressed that we are living in a world of increased darkness and chaos. Fears of terrorism reach a diversity of people, regardless of ethnic background, location or social class. People are afraid to ride the subway, sit down in a café, and this isn’t just in the Land of Israel, but the fear penetrates even in former safe havens, such as Middle America. Right now, we are worried about Iran and its nuclear capabilities; its declared enemies are the U.S. and Israel, which it plans to “wipe off the map (but we are approaching the holiday of Purim which reminds us of another time in history when the Persians threatened and failed to destroy us.)
Would you believe that the world is actually more peaceful than it was in 1991, when the Cold War ended? In 1991 the Lubavitcher Rebbe, Menachem Mendel Schneersohn pointed out the Swords into Plowshares declaration of the United Nations was a sign that the Ultimate Redemption, the era of perfect peace, was beginning. The Swords into Ploughshares was a declaration to end the stockpiling of weapons of mass destruction ad instead use technology to improve economic stability. The name “Swords into Ploughshares” is taken from the book of Isaiah in which the profit describes the Ultimate Redemption and the coming of Moshiach (the one who will usher in the era of peace) as a time when “Swords will be beaten into ploughshares” and the nations will learn the art of war no more.
But what has happened since then? 9-11. A continuation of the Persian Gulf War. The intifada in the Land of Israel. More terror attacks across the globe and the proliferation of terrorist organizations. But in spite of all this, the world is more peaceful and is starting to realize the kind of human development the Lubavitcher Rebbe spoke about. How can this be? According to the Human Security Report, War and Peace in the 21st century (Oxford University Press), it is clear that the “culture of war” is the thing of the past. Naked aggression is outlawed, colonialism is no more and war is no longer a routine part of governing a populace. War is no longer considered to be economically feasible, and conflicts are increasingly resolved through negotiations.
Here are some statistics: Civil wars increased briefly around 1991 as Soviet Imperialism was struggling for survival, but overall, civil wars decreased by 80% between 1946 and 1991. While terrorism is discussed constantly, it is actually “going out of fashion.” The number of attacks reached a peak in 2004, and have been declining steadily since then; the number of attacks declined by 40% in that period and number of fatalities by 90%. This is attributed to counterterrorism strategies and the breakdown and infighting among terrorist organizations. In 2007, only 1% of Afghans supported the Taliban and while 70% supported Bin Laden in 2007, only 4% of Afghans were loyal to him in 2008.
While we still remember with horror the Mumbai attacks, perpetrated by Pakistani terrorists, it looks like support for terrorism is waning in that country as well: support for Pakistani jihad-oriented political parties declined by 500% between 2002 and 2008. Perhaps, like the temporary proliferation of Civil Wars in 1991 was followed by a steep decline, attacks like Mumbai are like the “last shout” of a dying ideology.
Let’s continue to see world events as they really are. Looking at the big picture, we are approaching a time of peace and truth, and evil is merely having its last shout before it finally goes out with a whimper.